Forecast & historical wind data

14-day forecast · Tarifa

Expected wind at Tarifa

Strongest in the next 7 days: Wed 18 19:00 · 11 kt (likely 6–16) · gusts 26 kt · WSW

Could reach 15 kt or more: Wed 18 up to 15 kt

ikite's estimate: each model is corrected by its own track record at this spot, then weighted by how reliable it has been. Recalculated every morning after new forecasts arrive. On past days here, the real wind landed inside the shaded range 80% of the time.

Fri 13

Daily forecast

Tarifa

Time gdps gfs icon13 icon7 ifs wrf3 wrf9 zephr
06:00 10-17 12-17 12-25 13-24 11-20 17-24 15-21 12-18
07:00 10-15 12-17 11-25 12-24 11-19 12-17 15-21 11-19
08:00 9-14 12-18 11-24 13-23 10-18 11-20 13-20 11-19
09:00 9-15 14-19 10-24 11-23 11-19 14-21 13-18 11-18
10:00 8-14 15-19 10-22 12-20 12-21 12-18 12-16 12-19
11:00 11-17 14-19 11-22 12-22 12-21 12-17 13-16 13-19
12:00 10-17 15-19 12-23 12-22 13-24 15-22 13-16 14-20
13:00 10-17 14-19 12-23 12-23 14-24 15-21 13-17 15-21
14:00 11-18 14-19 12-23 13-23 15-25 16-21 13-17 15-20
15:00 12-19 14-19 12-23 12-23 15-25 16-22 12-16 15-20
16:00 11-19 14-19 11-23 12-22 14-24 16-22 12-15 15-20
17:00 11-19 12-18 11-22 12-22 13-21 15-21 12-15 13-19
18:00 10-15 9-16 9-22 9-22 12-20 14-19 11-15 11-18
19:00 9-14 7-14 9-19 9-18 10-17 13-18 11-14 10-16
20:00 8-13 8-14 9-19 10-19 10-17 10-14 10-16

Model accuracy at Tarifa

Same-day forecasts vs this spot's meter · 54 days · 09:00–18:00

Model Wind error Wind bias Gust vs real peak Gust factor Hours
ikite estimate best wind ±2.0 0.0 +0.7 2.66× 417
gdps ±4.6 +4.5 -2.3 1.67× 419
icon13 ±5.5 +5.4 +0.1 1.72× 419
ifs ±6.3 +6.3 +2.3 1.76× 419
zephr ±6.4 +6.4 -0.7 1.37× 253
icon7 ±6.7 +6.7 +1.9 1.67× 419
gfs ±6.8 +6.7 -2.8 1.32× 419
wrf9 ±9.7 +9.7 +0.8 1.29× 419
wrf1 ±10.7 +10.7 +4.0 1.28× 253
wrf3 ±10.9 +10.9 +2.4 1.30× 419

Real gusts here peak at 2.74× the wind. A model whose gust factor is well above that has gusts that run hot. Forecasts several days out are less accurate than these same-day scores.