Forecast & historical wind data

14-day forecast · Los Alcazares

Expected wind at Los Alcazares

Strongest in the next 7 days: Wed 18 16:00 · 8 kt (likely 4–13) · gusts 17 kt · SSW

ikite's estimate: each model is corrected by its own track record at this spot, then weighted by how reliable it has been. Recalculated every morning after new forecasts arrive. On past days here, the real wind landed inside the shaded range 83% of the time.

Fri 13

Daily forecast

Los Alcazares

Time gdps gfs icon13 icon7 ifs wrf3 wrf9 zephr
06:00 7-8 7-10 4-7 4-7 5-9 4-8 7-13 5-5
07:00 6-7 6-10 3-7 3-6 5-9 4-4 7-12 5-8
08:00 6-6 7-11 3-6 3-5 5-9 5-5 6-9 5-14
09:00 6-7 6-13 3-6 3-5 5-9 2-9 6-13 6-16
10:00 5-7 7-11 3-6 3-6 4-9 7-14 8-10 3-17
11:00 5-8 7-10 4-8 4-7 6-12 8-11 6-8 8-14
12:00 4-8 7-9 6-10 6-10 6-12 10-14 5-7 8-15
13:00 6-10 6-9 6-11 6-12 7-13 12-15 7-9 8-16
14:00 10-13 4-10 6-11 5-11 7-13 12-15 9-10 12-17
15:00 12-14 5-11 7-12 9-15 9-16 12-15 10-11 12-15
16:00 12-15 10-11 8-13 11-18 8-14 13-18 10-13 11-16
17:00 12-15 9-12 7-13 9-18 8-13 12-19 9-13 9-16
18:00 10-14 7-11 5-12 6-15 7-11 9-20 4-15 4-20
19:00 9-11 4-6 4-9 5-10 6-10 4-7 4-16 4-23
20:00 8-8 2-3 4-7 4-7 6-9 4-16 4-21

Model accuracy at Los Alcazares

Same-day forecasts vs this spot's meter · 54 days · 09:00–18:00

Model Wind error Wind bias Gust vs real peak Gust factor Hours
ikite estimate best wind ±2.3 -0.2 -0.7 1.96× 503
ifs ±3.5 +2.5 +2.9 1.80× 500
icon7 ±3.6 +2.4 +2.7 1.88× 500
icon13 ±3.8 +2.8 +2.7 1.78× 500
zephr ±3.8 +2.9 -0.8 1.23× 320
wrf3 ±4.5 +3.7 -0.3 1.20× 500
gdps ±4.8 +4.1 +0.4 1.22× 500
gfs ±4.8 +4.2 -0.6 1.06× 500
wrf9 ±5.4 +4.9 +0.8 1.12× 500

Real gusts here peak at 1.93× the wind. A model whose gust factor is well above that has gusts that run hot. Forecasts several days out are less accurate than these same-day scores.